Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 0.206274 0.247818 0.297634 0.362394 0.445275 0.549047 6.908190e-01
2025-06-01 0.151365 0.198501 0.261634 0.354414 0.490856 0.690122 1.015000e+00
2025-06-08 0.116554 0.164296 0.234484 0.349348 0.541264 0.866562 1.503037e+00
2025-06-15 0.093453 0.140416 0.215501 0.351383 0.608526 1.116426 2.330680e+00
2025-06-22 0.076293 0.121291 0.198877 0.353083 0.682416 1.443086 3.710532e+00
2025-06-29 0.060888 0.101330 0.175528 0.335203 0.714559 1.727514 5.492500e+00
2025-07-06 0.044277 0.075621 0.135214 0.269575 0.609983 1.605544 5.894181e+00
2025-07-13 0.037627 0.066797 0.125314 0.267059 0.664605 2.015200 9.563664e+00
2025-07-20 0.033266 0.061411 0.121066 0.276881 0.765075 2.735299 1.806328e+01
2025-07-27 0.029997 0.057517 0.119084 0.292592 0.903067 3.886832 3.910131e+01
2025-08-03 0.026924 0.053382 0.115497 0.303178 1.040542 5.417031 8.975964e+01
2025-08-10 0.023634 0.048095 0.107745 0.298361 1.119221 6.903309 1.922084e+02
2025-08-17 0.020321 0.042339 0.097928 0.285072 1.165118 8.546323 4.452743e+02
2025-08-24 0.018244 0.039103 0.094027 0.291237 1.328984 12.372740 1.922541e+03
2025-08-31 0.016467 0.036244 0.090439 0.297588 1.518346 18.367118 1.620419e+04
2025-09-07 0.015040 0.033988 0.088025 0.308216 1.771925 29.113001 1.417514e+06
2025-09-14 0.013759 0.031856 0.085421 0.317366 2.054143 47.207902 NaN
2025-09-21 0.012281 0.028914 0.079434 0.307816 2.173760 65.457840 NaN
2025-09-28 0.010166 0.023891 0.065468 0.252554 1.766710 51.607615 NaN
2025-10-05 0.009332 0.022324 0.062785 0.253565 1.955429 79.217935 NaN
2025-10-12 0.008772 0.021435 0.062200 0.265705 2.319046 149.576479 NaN
2025-10-19 0.008334 0.020817 0.062431 0.283258 2.840052 335.399602 NaN
2025-10-26 0.007861 0.020014 0.061772 0.295716 3.372645 776.467150 NaN